Well-known psephologist Dr. Seedhaa Ganit has come to a shocking conclusion studying various trends. This study has also caused consternation in international circles.
Dr. Ganit told Faking News that he went on a simple formula for election results – how many seats are claimed, with what confidence and what has been the probability of the claim.
When we asked what makes Dr. Ganit’s calculation overflow political boundaries of India, he replied that when calculations were tried on BJP’s claims, things went a bit awry. BJP’s prime-ministerial candidate Narendra Modi claimed 300 seats and has been unwavering since, giving a confidence of 1.0. While the man is known to be a no-nonsense deliverer, his probability of delivery is also 1.0 – leading to a slightly smaller than AAP performance of 300 seats.
Then Baba Ramdev announced support to BJP. The Yoga guru is confident of earning BJP 300 seats. Listening to his tone, Dr. Seedhaa concluded that he is talking about 300 seats other than what Mr. Modi had already claimed. Given Yoga guru’s confidence level is higher than normal at 1.1, slightly less than AAP’s and credibility of claim slightly less, at 0.999, BJP is likely to get 300 additional seats. That will beat any party’s historical and future performance as per Dr. Seedhaa Ganit.
The overflow to neighboring countries came into picture when he considered claims by other parties like Aam Admi Party, which claimed to contest from 300 seats with very high confidence 1.2 and probability has been above normal 1.2 again leaves . That left 2014 Lok Sabha share of AAP with 432 seats. Congress is likely to contest on 450 seats with an external confidence of 5 riding on food sop, Lok Pal etc. and probability of 0.2 given public mood, leading to repeat performance of late Rajeev Gandhi’s record.
This sure is likely to overflow current capacity of Lok Sabha of 545 members. Naturally this has to be accommodated somewhere according to the psephologist. Nepal has already shown interested in AAP. Of our neighbors going to polls within next a few months, Sindh province of Pakistan and Bangladesh are the only two possibilities where BJP may blow the competition off, he has concluded. Dr. Ganit has ignored impact of claims with confidence higher than 5 or probability lower than 0.2 in cases such as the left parties or some regional parties.
In the meanwhile, a secret report from RAW is leaked on the internet reporting dolphins in Indian oceans have decided to conduct polls this year. We are waiting from Baba Ramdev about his comments on universality of appeal of Yoga.